WDC
Western Digital Corporation$412.11Technology · Computer Hardware · HBM / DRAM / NAND / 存储 · as of 2026-10-06
建仓一批65便宜（周期股需打折）：NTM PE 17.8、PEG 0.31，EPS上修但股价距高点-48% · 2026-10-06
数据：EPS增速58%，上调10/下调0，90天共识+25%，目标价空间61%，3个月-22%。我的看法：EPS上修而价格下跌，是典型的无人问津；但周期股要看长协锁价和第三年EPS，第一批要小。
风险：可能是周期顶部的低PE陷阱；pe_ttm 15.3低于pe_ntm 17.8，与58%增速矛盾，疑有一次性项；1个月-12%未企稳。
卖出触发：90天共识转负；毛利率见顶；NTM PE回到同环节上沿（>25倍）；财报确认一次性项后forward EPS下修。
数据缺口：一次性项明细、长协占比、毛利率路径、历史PE区间、RSI/放量下影等底部信号。
valuation 6growth_path 7margin 7management 6chain_demand 7setup 7macro 5technical 5
估值
PE TTM15.3
PE NTM (混合)17.8
Fwd PE (Yahoo +1y)13.0
PEG NTM0.31
PEG (Yahoo)0.79
EV/EBITDA31.8
EV/Rev12.3
P/S11.5
FCF yield1.5%
Fwd PE 自身分位n=1，样本不足
增长 / 质量
Revenue TTM12.9B
Rev growth (yoy q)44%
Earnings growth984%
EPS +1y vs 0y58%
Gross margin49%
Op margin44%
Net margin73%
FCF / OCF2.3B / 3.9B
Debt / Cash1.2B / 1.6B
Mkt cap / EV148.6B / 158.8B
共识 / 修正
Target mean664.9 (61%)
Rec mean (1=StrongBuy)1.54
SB/B/H/S4/17/5/0
Analysts24
+1y EPS up/down 30d10 / 0
+1y EPS chg 90d25%
Surprise avg 4q11.2%
Next earnings2026-11-05
FY end2027-07-03
价格 / 情绪
52w high / low799.9 / 112.5
vs 52w high-48%
Ret 1m / 3m-12% / -22%
RS vs SPY 1m / 3m-13% / -27%
Beta2.17
Short % float5.4%
Div yield0.14%
共识预期 (EPS / Revenue)
| Period | End | EPS avg | low–high | g | 90d ago | Up/Dn 30d | Rev avg | Rev g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | 2026-09-30 | 4.04 | 4.00–4.23 | 127% | 3.68 | 13/0 | 4.1B | 47% |
| +1q | 2026-12-31 | 4.67 | 4.19–5.24 | 119% | 4.20 | 12/1 | 4.5B | 51% |
| 0y | 2027-06-30 | 20.09 | 15.76–23.50 | 97% | 17.77 | 16/0 | 19.2B | 49% |
| +1y | 2028-06-30 | 31.75 | 21.95–45.36 | 58% | 25.46 | 10/0 | 26.2B | 37% |
财报历史 (EPS actual vs estimate)
| Quarter | Actual | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | 1.78 | 1.58 | 12.9% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2.13 | 1.93 | 10.5% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2.72 | 2.39 | 13.6% |
| 2026-06-30 | 3.56 | 3.30 | 7.9% |
价格（1 年）与 Forward PE 快照历史
Forward PE 历史区间：每日快照累积中（目前 1 天）