TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur$483.98Technology · Semiconductors · 代工 / 半导体设备 / 测试 · as of 2026-10-06
建仓一批65中性偏低：NTM 23.2、PEG 0.77，链条收费站的质量配这个价不贵，但贴近高点。 · 2026-10-06
NTM 23.2，PEG 0.77，EPS增速30%。90天共识+9%，2上0下，op margin 60%，营收+36%。代工是全链必经环节。
风险：fcf_yield 29%/EV/EBITDA 5.6 疑似TWD/USD口径错配；距高-1%；10-15财报，事前不下注。
卖出触发：财报后全年指引下修；NTM PE 升到自身历史上区间且上修停止；移动止盈10%。
数据缺口：FCF口径核实、capex指引、先进制程产能锁定年限、地缘（超出认知不用来改仓位）。
valuation 6growth_path 7margin 9management 6chain_demand 8setup 4macro 5technical 4
估值
PE TTM35.2
PE NTM (混合)23.2
Fwd PE (Yahoo +1y)22.1
PEG NTM0.77
PEG (Yahoo)0.90
EV/EBITDA5.6
EV/Rev4.0
P/S0.6
FCF yield29.1%
Fwd PE 自身分位n=1，样本不足
增长 / 质量
Revenue TTM4.44T
Rev growth (yoy q)36%
Earnings growth77%
EPS +1y vs 0y30%
Gross margin64%
Op margin60%
Net margin50%
FCF / OCF730.8B / 2.63T
Debt / Cash1.07T / 3.52T
Mkt cap / EV2.51T / 17.75T
共识 / 修正
Target mean554.3 (15%)
Rec mean (1=StrongBuy)1.38
SB/B/H/S6/14/1/0
Analysts20
+1y EPS up/down 30d2 / 0
+1y EPS chg 90d9%
Surprise avg 4q8.1%
Next earnings2026-10-15
FY end2026-12-31
价格 / 情绪
52w high / low487.5 / 266.8
vs 52w high-1%
Ret 1m / 3m13% / 12%
RS vs SPY 1m / 3m12% / 8%
Beta1.24
Short % float0.6%
Div yield0.78%
共识预期 (EPS / Revenue)
| Period | End | EPS avg | low–high | g | 90d ago | Up/Dn 30d | Rev avg | Rev g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | 2026-09-30 | 4.48 | 4.26–4.72 | 53% | 4.25 | 2/0 | 1.46T | 47% |
| +1q | 2026-12-31 | 4.98 | 4.76–5.29 | 58% | 4.51 | 2/0 | 1.61T | 54% |
| 0y | 2026-12-31 | 16.95 | 15.23–17.80 | 59% | 15.92 | 2/0 | 5.44T | 43% |
| +1y | 2027-12-31 | 22.03 | 19.58–24.62 | 30% | 20.30 | 2/0 | 7.34T | 35% |
财报历史 (EPS actual vs estimate)
| Quarter | Actual | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | 2.92 | 2.63 | 11.2% |
| 2025-12-31 | 3.14 | 2.98 | 5.5% |
| 2026-03-31 | 3.49 | 3.33 | 4.7% |
| 2026-06-30 | 4.31 | 3.89 | 10.9% |
价格（1 年）与 Forward PE 快照历史
Forward PE 历史区间：每日快照累积中（目前 1 天）