STX
Seagate Technology Holdings PLC$823.85Technology · Computer Hardware · HBM / DRAM / NAND / 存储 · as of 2026-10-06
建仓一批67中性偏低：NTM PE 20.1（Yahoo 14.9）、PEG 0.37，存储环节里上修最干净 · 2026-10-06
数据：EPS增速55%，90天共识+30%，上调15/下调0，运营利润率43%，营收+49%，目标价空间37%，距高点-28%。我的看法：EPS上修叠加价格回撤，PE被动压缩，性价比好于近高点的名字。
风险：属周期股；NTM与+1y PE差距大（20.1 vs 14.9），盈利依赖明年兑现；10-27财报前不下重注。
卖出触发：90天共识转负；毛利率见顶或长协比例下降；NTM PE回到25倍以上而EPS不再上修；连续两季指引低于共识。
数据缺口：长协/锁价占比、毛利率季度路径、第三年EPS、历史PE区间、技术面。
valuation 6growth_path 8margin 7management 6chain_demand 8setup 6macro 5technical 5
估值
PE TTM59.3
PE NTM (混合)20.1
Fwd PE (Yahoo +1y)14.9
PEG NTM0.37
PEG (Yahoo)0.49
EV/EBITDA45.1
EV/Rev16.7
P/S15.4
FCF yield1.0%
Fwd PE 自身分位n=1，样本不足
增长 / 质量
Revenue TTM12.2B
Rev growth (yoy q)49%
Earnings growth149%
EPS +1y vs 0y55%
Gross margin46%
Op margin43%
Net margin26%
FCF / OCF1.9B / 3.7B
Debt / Cash3.9B / 1.7B
Mkt cap / EV187.3B / 203.2B
共识 / 修正
Target mean1125.0 (37%)
Rec mean (1=StrongBuy)1.44
SB/B/H/S4/18/2/1
Analysts23
+1y EPS up/down 30d15 / 0
+1y EPS chg 90d30%
Surprise avg 4q11.8%
Next earnings2026-10-27
FY end2027-07-03
价格 / 情绪
52w high / low1145.0 / 209.0
vs 52w high-28%
Ret 1m / 3m-3% / -0%
RS vs SPY 1m / 3m-4% / -5%
Beta2.08
Short % float4.6%
Div yield0.33%
共识预期 (EPS / Revenue)
| Period | End | EPS avg | low–high | g | 90d ago | Up/Dn 30d | Rev avg | Rev g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | 2026-09-30 | 7.35 | 7.29–7.59 | 182% | 5.71 | 15/0 | 4.1B | 57% |
| +1q | 2026-12-31 | 8.38 | 7.63–9.39 | 169% | 6.45 | 15/0 | 4.5B | 59% |
| 0y | 2027-06-30 | 35.78 | 32.06–41.89 | 130% | 27.45 | 20/0 | 18.8B | 54% |
| +1y | 2028-06-30 | 55.37 | 35.24–80.11 | 55% | 42.49 | 15/0 | 25.1B | 34% |
财报历史 (EPS actual vs estimate)
| Quarter | Actual | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | 2.61 | 2.40 | 8.8% |
| 2025-12-31 | 3.11 | 2.84 | 9.6% |
| 2026-03-31 | 4.10 | 3.51 | 16.8% |
| 2026-06-30 | 5.71 | 5.09 | 12.1% |
价格（1 年）与 Forward PE 快照历史
Forward PE 历史区间：每日快照累积中（目前 1 天）