ORCL
Oracle Corporation$144.89Technology · Software - Infrastructure · 超大规模云 / 写支票的人 · as of 2026-10-06
观察仓60便宜但capex有问号：NTM PE 15.8、PEG 0.45，距高点-55% · 2026-10-06
数据：EPS增速35%，营收+30%，上调23/下调10，目标价空间64%，FCF收益率-10%。我的看法：典型的无人问津，但AI泡沫自检第一项（capex增量对比OI增量）在负FCF下过不了关，只配观察仓。
风险：FCF -10%，capex靠融资，对利率敏感；修订有分歧（23对10）；12-10财报才能验证。
卖出触发：FCF继续恶化且EPS下修；管理层回避margin和capex回报问题；融资条件收紧。
数据缺口：RPO/backlog、capex指引、负债结构、ROIC对比WACC、利率环境。
valuation 7growth_path 7margin 3management 5chain_demand 6setup 8macro 5technical 5
估值
PE TTM22.7
PE NTM (混合)15.8
Fwd PE (Yahoo +1y)13.2
PEG NTM0.45
PEG (Yahoo)0.79
EV/EBITDA16.5
EV/Rev7.9
P/S6.1
FCF yield-10.4%
Fwd PE 自身分位n=1，样本不足
增长 / 质量
Revenue TTM71.8B
Rev growth (yoy q)30%
Earnings growth55%
EPS +1y vs 0y35%
Gross margin64%
Op margin36%
Net margin26%
FCF / OCF-45.9B / 46.9B
Debt / Cash169.1B / 37.1B
Mkt cap / EV439.2B / 568.3B
共识 / 修正
Target mean238.0 (64%)
Rec mean (1=StrongBuy)1.58
SB/B/H/S7/28/7/1
Analysts41
+1y EPS up/down 30d23 / 10
+1y EPS chg 90d1%
Surprise avg 4q15.4%
Next earnings2026-12-10
FY end2027-05-31
价格 / 情绪
52w high / low322.5 / 114.5
vs 52w high-55%
Ret 1m / 3m-9% / 3%
RS vs SPY 1m / 3m-10% / -2%
Beta1.77
Short % float2.7%
Div yield1.40%
共识预期 (EPS / Revenue)
| Period | End | EPS avg | low–high | g | 90d ago | Up/Dn 30d | Rev avg | Rev g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | 2026-11-30 | 1.89 | 1.81–2.04 | -16% | 1.89 | 15/13 | 21.3B | 33% |
| +1q | 2027-02-28 | 2.02 | 1.89–2.12 | 13% | 2.06 | 5/23 | 23.4B | 36% |
| 0y | 2027-05-31 | 8.14 | 8.07–8.37 | 7% | 8.05 | 35/1 | 90.4B | 34% |
| +1y | 2028-05-31 | 11.00 | 9.00–13.30 | 35% | 10.92 | 23/10 | 131.7B | 46% |
财报历史 (EPS actual vs estimate)
| Quarter | Actual | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 2.26 | 1.64 | 38.0% |
| 2026-02-28 | 1.79 | 1.69 | 5.7% |
| 2026-05-31 | 2.11 | 1.96 | 7.5% |
| 2026-08-31 | 1.92 | 1.74 | 10.4% |
价格（1 年）与 Forward PE 快照历史
Forward PE 历史区间：每日快照累积中（目前 1 天）