MU
Micron Technology, Inc.$1061.18Technology · Semiconductors · HBM / DRAM / NAND / 存储 · as of 2026-10-06
观察仓60中性：NTM 5.9 看着极便宜，但周期股高位低 PE 不等于便宜，PEG 不适用。 · 2026-10-06
NTM 5.9，op margin 81%，营收+379%，90天共识+27%。但EPS +1y增速仅17%，增速在明显放缓，符合周期高位特征。
风险：毛利见顶后第三年EPS可能下滑；HBM长协比例缺失；12-23财报。
卖出触发：毛利率环比见顶/指引下修；共识EPS +1y转下修；持有者用移动止盈10%锁利润。
数据缺口：HBM长协锁价占比、DRAM价格趋势、第三年EPS、capex指引。
valuation 5growth_path 5margin 9management 6chain_demand 7setup 5macro 5technical 5
估值
PE TTM14.3
PE NTM (混合)5.9
Fwd PE (Yahoo +1y)5.1
PEG NTM0.35
PEG (Yahoo)0.16
EV/EBITDA10.7
EV/Rev8.7
P/S9.0
FCF yield2.4%
Fwd PE 自身分位n=1，样本不足
增长 / 质量
Revenue TTM133.2B
Rev growth (yoy q)379%
Earnings growth1061%
EPS +1y vs 0y17%
Gross margin81%
Op margin81%
Net margin64%
FCF / OCF29.2B / 89.7B
Debt / Cash5.2B / 43.4B
Mkt cap / EV1.20T / 1.16T
共识 / 修正
Target mean1535.6 (45%)
Rec mean (1=StrongBuy)1.37
SB/B/H/S9/36/3/1
Analysts46
+1y EPS up/down 30d4 / 1
+1y EPS chg 90d27%
Surprise avg 4q14.7%
Next earnings2026-12-23
FY end2027-09-03
价格 / 情绪
52w high / low1255.0 / 179.6
vs 52w high-15%
Ret 1m / 3m4% / 13%
RS vs SPY 1m / 3m3% / 8%
Beta2.23
Short % float2.5%
Div yield0.06%
共识预期 (EPS / Revenue)
| Period | End | EPS avg | low–high | g | 90d ago | Up/Dn 30d | Rev avg | Rev g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | 2026-08-31 | 38.21 | 30.20–40.47 | 1161% | 34.81 | 6/1 | 61.7B | 352% |
| +1q | 2026-11-30 | 42.12 | 39.71–46.85 | 781% | 37.48 | 6/1 | 67.0B | 181% |
| 0y | 2026-08-31 | 176.42 | 72.29–214.70 | 139% | 150.01 | 5/1 | 274.9B | 106% |
| +1y | 2027-08-31 | 206.68 | 161.00–335.50 | 17% | 163.35 | 4/1 | 314.4B | 14% |
财报历史 (EPS actual vs estimate)
| Quarter | Actual | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | 3.03 | 2.86 | 5.9% |
| 2026-02-28 | 12.20 | 9.16 | 33.2% |
| 2026-08-31 | 33.42 | 31.82 | 5.0% |
价格（1 年）与 Forward PE 快照历史
Forward PE 历史区间：每日快照累积中（目前 1 天）