COHR
Coherent Corp.$335.03Technology · Scientific & Technical Instruments · 光模块 / 光器件 · as of 2026-10-06
观察仓58中性：NTM PE 31.4、PEG 0.64，margin拖后腿 · 2026-10-06
数据：EPS增速49%，上调10/下调0，90天共识+12%，营收+34%，运营利润率12%，FCF收益率-1%，距高点-24%。我的看法：光模块需求在上修，但要先看到margin扩张路径才加码。
风险：运营利润率12%、FCF为负；1个月已+19%；11-04财报。
卖出触发：margin没有改善；上修停止；NTM PE超过40倍。
数据缺口：毛利率路径、800G/1.6T产品结构、历史PE区间、电话会措辞。
valuation 6growth_path 7margin 4management 5chain_demand 7setup 6macro 5technical 5
估值
PE TTM81.3
PE NTM (混合)31.4
Fwd PE (Yahoo +1y)23.9
PEG NTM0.64
PEG (Yahoo)0.92
EV/EBITDA47.2
EV/Rev9.4
P/S9.2
FCF yield-1.0%
Fwd PE 自身分位n=1，样本不足
增长 / 质量
Revenue TTM7.1B
Rev growth (yoy q)34%
Earnings growth–
EPS +1y vs 0y49%
Gross margin37%
Op margin12%
Net margin11%
FCF / OCF-650M / 80M
Debt / Cash3.6B / 2.0B
Mkt cap / EV65.6B / 67.2B
共识 / 修正
Target mean412.5 (23%)
Rec mean (1=StrongBuy)1.58
SB/B/H/S4/15/5/0
Analysts23
+1y EPS up/down 30d10 / 0
+1y EPS chg 90d12%
Surprise avg 4q6.7%
Next earnings2026-11-04
FY end2027-06-30
价格 / 情绪
52w high / low440.0 / 108.2
vs 52w high-24%
Ret 1m / 3m19% / 7%
RS vs SPY 1m / 3m18% / 3%
Beta2.11
Short % float6.1%
Div yield0.00%
共识预期 (EPS / Revenue)
| Period | End | EPS avg | low–high | g | 90d ago | Up/Dn 30d | Rev avg | Rev g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | 2026-09-30 | 1.96 | 1.68–2.05 | 69% | 1.77 | 17/0 | 2.3B | 46% |
| +1q | 2026-12-31 | 2.20 | 1.90–2.48 | 70% | 1.95 | 15/1 | 2.5B | 50% |
| 0y | 2027-06-30 | 9.42 | 8.26–10.26 | 68% | 8.17 | 19/1 | 10.6B | 49% |
| +1y | 2028-06-30 | 14.05 | 11.38–16.61 | 49% | 12.52 | 10/0 | 14.8B | 39% |
财报历史 (EPS actual vs estimate)
| Quarter | Actual | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | 1.16 | 1.04 | 11.3% |
| 2025-12-31 | 1.29 | 1.21 | 6.8% |
| 2026-03-31 | 1.41 | 1.39 | 1.1% |
| 2026-06-30 | 1.74 | 1.62 | 7.6% |
价格（1 年）与 Forward PE 快照历史
Forward PE 历史区间：每日快照累积中（目前 1 天）