CLS
Celestica, Inc.$380.50Technology · Electronic Components · 服务器 / EMS 代工 · as of 2026-10-06
观察仓64中性偏低：NTM PE 21.8、PEG 0.30，但EMS低利润率业务天然折价 · 2026-10-06
数据：EPS增速73%，90天共识+34%，上调6/下调0，营收+62%，运营利润率10%，距高点-20%。我的看法：服务器/EMS环节里上修最快之一，PEG便宜有一部分是低margin的合理折价。
风险：运营利润率仅10%；客户集中度数据缺失；10-26财报临近，3个月已+11%。
卖出触发：上修停止；运营利润率下滑；NTM PE超过30倍；财报后指引低于共识。
数据缺口：客户集中度、margin路径、历史PE区间、电话会措辞。
valuation 7growth_path 8margin 5management 6chain_demand 7setup 6macro 5technical 5
估值
PE TTM39.5
PE NTM (混合)21.8
Fwd PE (Yahoo +1y)19.4
PEG NTM0.30
PEG (Yahoo)1.00
EV/EBITDA28.5
EV/Rev2.9
P/S3.1
FCF yield1.5%
Fwd PE 自身分位n=1，样本不足
增长 / 质量
Revenue TTM15.6B
Rev growth (yoy q)62%
Earnings growth74%
EPS +1y vs 0y73%
Gross margin12%
Op margin10%
Net margin7%
FCF / OCF729M / 1.1B
Debt / Cash981M / 537M
Mkt cap / EV48.0B / 44.4B
共识 / 修正
Target mean473.9 (25%)
Rec mean (1=StrongBuy)1.23
SB/B/H/S5/17/0/0
Analysts18
+1y EPS up/down 30d6 / 0
+1y EPS chg 90d34%
Surprise avg 4q6.4%
Next earnings2026-10-26
FY end2026-12-31
价格 / 情绪
52w high / low474.0 / 230.2
vs 52w high-20%
Ret 1m / 3m22% / 11%
RS vs SPY 1m / 3m21% / 6%
Beta1.32
Short % float3.1%
Div yield0.00%
共识预期 (EPS / Revenue)
| Period | End | EPS avg | low–high | g | 90d ago | Up/Dn 30d | Rev avg | Rev g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | 2026-09-30 | 2.98 | 2.80–3.10 | 89% | 2.69 | 15/1 | 5.4B | 71% |
| +1q | 2026-12-31 | 3.53 | 3.14–4.36 | 53% | 2.91 | 6/0 | 6.4B | 74% |
| 0y | 2026-12-31 | 11.21 | 10.42–11.59 | 85% | 10.29 | 17/2 | 20.6B | 66% |
| +1y | 2027-12-31 | 19.36 | 17.47–22.16 | 67% | 14.47 | 6/0 | 35.4B | 72% |
财报历史 (EPS actual vs estimate)
| Quarter | Actual | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | 1.58 | 1.49 | 6.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | 1.89 | 1.76 | 7.3% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2.16 | 2.12 | 2.1% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2.54 | 2.31 | 10.0% |
价格（1 年）与 Forward PE 快照历史
Forward PE 历史区间：每日快照累积中（目前 1 天）