AVGO
Broadcom Inc.$376.32Technology · Semiconductors · GPU / ASIC / CPU / 互连芯片 · as of 2026-10-06
观察仓63中性偏低但预期分歧：NTM 20.0、PEG 0.30，可 30 天 27 人下调，安全边际可能被吃。 · 2026-10-06
NTM 20.0，PEG 0.30，EPS增速66%，op margin 54%，营收+86%。距高-24%，目标空间41%。但30天12上27下，90天共识-0%。
风险：EPS若继续下修，PE被动上升；ASIC客户集中度缺失；12-09财报。
卖出触发：90天共识转负超过-5%；下季指引低于共识；管理层回避margin问题。
数据缺口：下调原因（毛利/客户）、ASIC订单能见度、电话会措辞。
valuation 6growth_path 6margin 8management 5chain_demand 7setup 6macro 5technical 5
估值
PE TTM48.1
PE NTM (混合)20.0
Fwd PE (Yahoo +1y)19.4
PEG NTM0.30
PEG (Yahoo)0.35
EV/EBITDA33.8
EV/Rev19.8
P/S20.2
FCF yield1.7%
Fwd PE 自身分位n=1，样本不足
增长 / 质量
Revenue TTM89.1B
Rev growth (yoy q)86%
Earnings growth215%
EPS +1y vs 0y66%
Gross margin76%
Op margin54%
Net margin43%
FCF / OCF30.6B / 40.7B
Debt / Cash59.4B / 24.0B
Mkt cap / EV1.80T / 1.77T
共识 / 修正
Target mean531.3 (41%)
Rec mean (1=StrongBuy)1.26
SB/B/H/S7/40/3/0
Analysts47
+1y EPS up/down 30d12 / 27
+1y EPS chg 90d-0%
Surprise avg 4q2.5%
Next earnings2026-12-09
FY end2026-11-02
价格 / 情绪
52w high / low495.0 / 290.0
vs 52w high-24%
Ret 1m / 3m5% / 2%
RS vs SPY 1m / 3m4% / -3%
Beta1.48
Short % float1.1%
Div yield0.72%
共识预期 (EPS / Revenue)
| Period | End | EPS avg | low–high | g | 90d ago | Up/Dn 30d | Rev avg | Rev g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | 2026-10-31 | 3.83 | 3.53–3.92 | 96% | 3.86 | 9/24 | 34.9B | 94% |
| +1q | 2027-01-31 | 4.08 | 3.70–4.30 | 99% | 4.12 | 8/19 | 37.0B | 91% |
| 0y | 2026-10-31 | 11.66 | 11.35–12.38 | 71% | 11.62 | 23/14 | 106.0B | 66% |
| +1y | 2027-10-31 | 19.39 | 17.47–22.44 | 66% | 19.46 | 12/27 | 173.9B | 64% |
财报历史 (EPS actual vs estimate)
| Quarter | Actual | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-31 | 1.95 | 1.87 | 4.4% |
| 2026-01-31 | 2.05 | 2.02 | 1.3% |
| 2026-04-30 | 2.44 | 2.40 | 1.7% |
| 2026-07-31 | 3.32 | 3.24 | 2.5% |
价格（1 年）与 Forward PE 快照历史
Forward PE 历史区间：每日快照累积中（目前 1 天）